Prospects Harvest

PROSPECTS HARVEST

THE NEW CROP TO WATCH

By Trotsky January 2, 2008

With the lack of news and having to wait two entire weeks for the Patriots to play, it seems like a good time to write a little about some prospects to keep your eyes on for 2008.

Every year we get prospects that at one point or another get hyped up, and either fall back to earth or even lower... and ones that stick around at the top of the everyone's "Can't Miss" list.

Last year at this time, guys like Clay Buchholz, Michael Bowden, Justin Masterson and Lars Anderson were all very highly regarded, but by after their '07 seasons played out, there's really nobody out there that doesn't doubt they'll be solid to very good major league players. Other names like Daniel Bard, Carlos Fernandez, Bryce Cox, Jason Place and Felix Doubront all turned in lackluster years in the minors and have fallen hard. Other guys that had previously fallen- due to any variety of reasons- were able to put together good seasons and re-emerge as top prospects in the "Sure Thing" category- Jed Lowrie, specifically.... so while guys like Bard and Place may have dropped, they could find something in their swing or delivery and suddenly turn into everything that the scouts that were so high on them felt they could be.

So..... that leads us to this years first crop. We'll start high on the tree and work our way down as I write more of these in the future.

Number one on my list of prospects to watch out for is the Sox no. 1 draft pick, 22 year old 6'5" 230lb LHP, Nick Hagadone. Sox Prospects has Hagadone ranked at no. 7 already. Jon Sickels has him at no. 7 (BA and BP hasn't came out yet with individual teams "top 10's"). Hagadone has an excellent fastball between 93-95 mph with good movement, but was reaching 96-98 on radar guns in Lowell late this past summer. Nick also features a killer 82 mph "plus" slider and a very good 80 mph changeup. Hagadone throws all his pitches for strikes and has excellent control. In 24.1 IP in Lowell he had 33K's and 8BB's with an excellent 12.33 K/9 a 2.98 BB/9 and a very nice .912 WHIP. His ERA over his brief time in the mL's was a nice 1.85 ERA... although even scarier is that he allowed ALL of his runs in his first game and was not scored upon thereafter. Nick was a closer his final year in college, but by all indications, the Red Sox will be converting him into a starter, and will most likely send him to Lancaster to start the '08 season, and if he dominates there as he did Lowell... he could advance quickly to Portland by midseason. My own feelings are that Nick is going to be fantastic after what seems to be an obligatory bad first month for all pitchers in Lancaster and might only get promoted for the stretch run to Portland at the end of the season. Big hard throwing lefties that don't have control problems like Nick are rare as purple clam pearls, especially at his young age, and I think Nick's emergence is one of the reasons the Sox are looking to leverage their other power lefty (Lester) to bring in Santana. Nick could be ready for prime time by as late as 2009 for roster expansions and full time by 2010.

Going just one step down on the Sox Prospects and Sickels rankings to no. 8 is 19 year old outfielder Ryan Khalish. Ryan is "5-tool" 6' left handed hitter with some nice power and reports have stated that he is actually faster than Ellsbury. Also according to a report while he was a DH his final year in high school, he did not swing and miss a single pitch. He was drafted in the 9th round of the '06 draft and played in 6 games for the Gulf Coast Red Sox and 11 games for Lowell in his first season where he had a rough start. He worked intensely on his plate discipline and selection and it paid huge dividends last year where he played in 23 games and hit .368BA/ .471OBP/ .540SLG with 18 stolen bases, 18BB's, 3HR's, 4 2B and 1 3B and only 12 K's before getting hit on the wrist and missing the rest of the season. He had surgery and is expected back, probably in Greenville to start the '08 season. Wrist injuries, as we saw with Nomar back in 2000 can permanently cause problems with hitters so we'll have to hope he's fine and doesn't have a setback. Ryan played almost exclusively CF and could easily stick there as his range is amazing and his arm is very strong..... he should most likely continue playing there but could easily move to RF if Ellsbury is firmly planted in CF for the Red Sox in the long term future. Depending on how quickly Ryan heals and if he is able to sustain his production, his timeline is probably going to move slowly through the minors and might see his arrival by 2010 at the earliest.

Again, just taking one step down in the rankings of both Sox Prospects and Sickels ranking is young Shortstop Oscar Tejeda. Tejeda was also ranked as the 80th overall prospect in the nation by Baseball Prospectus. Oscar was signed by the Sox as an International Free Agent in July 2006. He is currently just 18 years old, a 6'1 lanky, "amazing athlete" with great speed, good power (relative to SS), strong, clean swing and good plate discipline for his age. Scouts are very impressed with his maturity and thinks his range and arm strength makes him a keeper at SS, though he commits some mental errors- mostly hurrying throws that many feel he will grow out of commiting. He's incredibly young, even for Lowell, where he mostly faced kids coming out of college- averaging 3,4 years older than him. While at Lowell he hit .298BA/ .347OBP/ .394SLG with 5 2B, 2 3B and 6 BB's. He struck out 26 times and stole 4 bases. While the numbers aren't terribly impressive, comparing them to others in the minors at his age makes one realize why the scouts are so high on this kid. They all seem to feel that as he grows, both his power and plate discipline will grow. A writer at BP described him as "Alfonso Soriano with better hands and a better eye."

Finally at Sickels no. 10 ranking, and Sox Prospects no. 11 is 19 year old "infielder" right handed 6'4 Will Middlebrooks. Will was drafted in the 5th round of the '07 draft but a drawn out contract signing prevented him from joining the Spinners so hasn't seen any mL games yet. According to Sox Prospects, Will is "probably the best talent selected by the Sox in the '07 draft". He has great power potential and makes excellent contact. Defensively he has a great arm and hands but has poor lateral movement so he most likely will be moved to 3rd base despite playing mostly SS.
While in high school, his final year saw him put up a .555BA/ .664OBP/ .927SLG for a mind-warping 1.592 OPS. Jim Callis of BP thought that out of all the players selected (and not including the obvious top talents) that Middlebrooks has the highest ceiling, while interestingly enough, Carlos Gomez from the Hardball Times seems to have a personal vendetta against Middlebrooks and thinks he's pretty much garbage. It'll be interesting to see if he's one or the other of those extremes, or more likely, something close to the middle of those. Will will mostly likely start '07 in Greenville next season where I'm sure he'll still see time at SS, but mostly as 3rd baseman. His ETA for the parent club is probably riding the shuttle between Boston and Pawtucket in 2010 with a late season callup as early as 2009, where he could end up as the long term replacement for Mike Lowell as a starter by 2011. It should also be noted here that Middlebrooks was a dominant high school pitcher, although by all accounts he won't ever pitch again in professional baseball.

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