UOTM Special

UOTM SPECIAL

PROJECT PROSPECT Q & A

By Trotsky February 10, 2008

A relative newcomer in the prospect ranking industry, Project Prospect was founded by Adam Foster and Patrick Hennessey in September of 2006 with early contributions from Denny Foster and Nick Christie. The site began as a blog, but generated so much interest right out of the gate that Foster took it to the next level and it has since been growing rapidly.

A Northern California native, Foster began pursuing journalism as a hobby during his final year in college. He took to focusing more heavily on writing when he began working for UC Davis' daily student newspaper in September of 2005. Four months after launching Project Prospect, Foster moved to Durham, NC to write for Baseball America (intern). He recently moved back to CA.

The 23-year-old played baseball in high school, but realized that 5-foot-7 lefties who only: hit to the opposite field, run a tick above average, and attack hitters with a two-seam changeup/four-seam changeup combo don't tend to draw much interest from college programs.

Foster has been published by Baseball America, MiLB.com, Scout.com, Major League Baseball Yearbook (magazine), and CSTV. He received a Bachelor of Science Degree from UC Davis in December of 2006.

Foster agreed to look at and respond to several questions that the posters at Uponthemonster.com came up with after Project Prospect posted it's "Red Sox Top Five Prospects" list at the end of January when we knew for certain that Jacoby Ellsbury was (or wasn't) going to be on this list, for instance.

I want to thank Adam for taking the time to look at these questions and to thoughtfully respond.

*Q & A*

Adam - My career is City Planning. I follow minor leaguers as a hobby. I favor quantitative analysis because scouting is too subjective for me. I don’t like putting a lot of weight in reports about tools. I prefer to find metrics that can discern that kind of information for me. And I think my ranking programs get better and better at doing that each year.

As statistics continue to get better, so will statistical analysis. I just think statistical analysis is really undervalued in the media as far as minor leaguers go. For some reason, the big dogs in the industry choose to practically ignore it. And don’t get me wrong, I do see a ton of value in scouting. I’m trying to learn more about it every day. I’m just going by my strengths right now. And I think they happen to play into a market that’s largely untapped. Otherwise, a hobbyist wouldn’t be able to rally up an audience of over 40,000 unique visitors a month

UoTM - With Youkilis, Carter and Bates ahead of him, what are the near to mid term prospects for Lars Anderson? I would imagine under most circumstances that he'd be poised for a promotion to AA in 2008, AAA in 2009 with a midseason callup. But Bates had a terrific year last year and Carter is newly arrived late last season in the WMP deal, so I doubt he's going anywhere soon. Is it likely that we'll see one or both of those two in Boston or traded to make way for Anderson to move up?

Adam - I think when Anderson is ready Boston will make room for him. It’s a lot to expect any prospect to immediately adjust to Double-A one year and Triple-A the next. Anderson may be that kind of hitter but he still has a lot to prove.

Carter and Bates don’t strike me as guys who the Red Sox will plan to bank on as every-day players. I guess I could see them filling in for part of a season. Then maybe Boston could get them on display to see what kind of interest they draw. They both could also be excellent bat to bring in off the bench, too – or maybe that’s just the National League fan in me thinking

UoTM - Considering Bates, what do you expect of him going forward? Was his great year in Lancaster pure "park affect"? And would you put Bubba Bell in the same category if so?

Adam - There are a lot of guys who have amazing seasons in The California League. Remember when Brandon Wood hit 43 home runs? California League. Or Stephen Drew. He put up a .502 wOBA (1.224 OPS) in Lancaster. That’s as well as he hit in Independent Ball. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Red Sox decide to start jumping some of their elite prospects from Greenville to Portland.

Bates was a totally different kind of power threat from Low-A to High-A. And I think that had a good amount to do with where he was playing. Bates’ 25.9% strikeout rate in his short Double-A stint – it was 17.8% in High-A – shows that he has some adjustments to make in the upper minors. I don’t expect him to replicate his High-A success next season. And he’ll be a 24-year-old in Double-A.

UoTM - What about Kris Johnson? He struggled at Lancaster and vanished from top prospect rankings, but if we're going to look skeptically at Bell and Bates because of park affect... why are people unwilling to extend that to pitchers?

Adam - I think Lancaster should be given special thought for pitchers and hitters. And I wouldn’t try to make a case that they aren’t through (with) Kris Johnson. He’s a really hard guy to get a read on right now.

First off, Johnson has fewer than 200.0 pro innings and most of them came in an extreme-hitter’s environment. Secondly, you don’t see a lot of 23-year-olds who haven’t played in the upper minors high in prospect rankings. And lastly, he had Tommy John surgery not too long ago. He’s a guy who could catapult his stock in the upper minors next year.

UoTM - What about Jason Place? He had high school numbers every bit as good as Lars coming into Greenville last year but really struggled (the K's were astonishing). Do you see him as that player last season, or will it just take him longer to adjust?

Adam - Well, I wouldn’t put any weight in high-school numbers. Place was solid in the Gulf Coast League, though. He definitely is capable of adjusting. He is a high-upside kind of guy. But yeah, a 30.8% strikeout rate at any level is a little frightening – the average prospect I look at is around 19.0%. I guess a positive is that his line-drive rate was 15%. So when he’s making contact, he’s hitting the ball on a line at a decent rate. Let’s just say I wouldn’t be surprised if he starts putting up monster numbers once he’s playing in Lancaster. We’ll see about Portland

UoTM - What's your take on Wil Middlebrooks? Some scouts felt he was the Sox best pick, while others have felt he's overrated. Is he this past draft's "Jason Place"?

Adam - I don’t really know enough about Middlebrooks to call him this draft’s Jason Place...not sure I’d label Jason Place as a bust or anything so soon, either. I do know that the Red Sox have a lot invested in Middlebrooks. And I can’t wait to see how he fares in his pro debut.

UoTM - Will Lowrie and/or Tejeda stick at SS?

Adam - When I saw Jed Lowrie play in college, he was a second baseman. I was surprised that he was even tried at shortstop in pro ball. And I’ve been even more surprised that he has been able to stick there through Double-A. I believe there’s a strong correlation between defensive ability and speed. Lowrie grades out as below-average in my speed score. Maybe he could be passable at shortstop in the big leagues. I still think he’ll fit in best as a second baseman. I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s given a look in the outfield, too.

Tejeda doesn’t do well in my speed score, either. But I don’t put nearly as much weight into what it spits out for guys below Double-A as I do guys like Lowrie. I’ll be reading every report I can find on Tejeda’s defense. It seems like the guys who are rumored as suspect at a position wind up moving more often than not, though.

UoTM - Does Masterson still project as a starter or reliever?

Adam - It’s tough to say. I’m still not sure myself. Masterson has the stuff to get hitters out. I think his ceiling isn’t that far from Brandon Webb’s in a perfect world as a starter. But he did have a couple injuries last season – pitched 153.2 innings – so he’s still going to need to prove he’s durable enough to be a starter. Let’s just say if he doesn’t wind up cutting it as a starter, he could be one of the best relievers in the league. He’ll likely be helping the Red Sox in some form or another by mid-2009 – could easily be sooner.

UoTM - Does Ryan Kalish project as a power bat along with Lars Anderson?

Adam - I doubt he’ll slug as much as Anderson, but he’ll have plenty of power for his position if he’s able to stick as a center fielder. I’m really excited about Kalish. I think he could explode onto the prospect scene next year. His upside rivals just about any center fielder in the minors right now

UoTM - How much minor league experience can a prospect have and still be a prospect?

Adam - Well, the term itself means prospective Major League Baseball player to me. That’s why I think even guys with other pro experience – like Daisuke Matsuzaka – are prospects until they’ve spent a certain amount of time in the big leagues. That’s what it comes down to for me. I’m fine with using the MLB rookie limits as standards for how much big league time a player can accrue before he’s no longer considered a prospect – 50.1 innings pitched or 131 at-bats.

UoTM - Do you see any dark horses emerging in 2008?

Adam - No doubt, there will be a lot of eyes on Michael Almanzar next season.

We’d like to thank Adam Foster for his time and hope he can do this again for us in the future. Until then please check out the Project Prospect website. Commentary and discussion on this Q & A is taking place on the UoTM Message Board.