Weekly Prospects Harvest

Weekly Prospects Harvest

FARM OBSERVATIONS

By Trotsky July 13, 2007

Almost two months overdue now, I finally got my lazy ass in gear and got together the newest "Weekly" (*cough*) Farm Report. Rather than hand out MVP's, since the usual suspects are the ones that consistently qualifying for them, and players have started to move up (Buchholz to Pawtucket, Bubba Bell and Justin Masterson to Portland...) I'm just going to do what I was doing before the seasons began and take a look at a few players that we should keep our eyes on as they move up the charts.

I'll start off with 6'4" righty first baseman (DH, and occasional catcher) Aaron Bates. Bates is probably finishing up his time in Lancaster and will move up and over to Portland. Bates had a fantastic first half in the California League. In 83 games and 315 AB's he had 100 hits (18 2B, 2 3B, and 19HR's) with 65 RBI's. He worked 60 BB's and K'd 74 times to put up a .317BA/ .447OBP/ .568SLG thus far.

One major concern with any prospect raking for Lancaster is the park effect, as Lancaster is a notorious "hitters park". While Bates did indeed have higher numbers at home, his road splits show that he is every bit as solid an offensive threat as his overall numbers suggests: .301BA/ .432OBP/ .503SLG with 8HR's in 153 AB's. His scouting report on Sox Prospects gives him a decent review as a defensive 1st baseman, and makes it seem that his chances of being anything more than an emergency backup catcher are pretty unlikely. They have him in their Top Ten prospects this year. However, it's pretty unlikely that he will crack either Baseball America or Baseball Prospectus Top 100 Prospect Rankings.

At Greenville, the player that has moved up the charts is 6'3" left-handed hitting corner outfielder, Reid Engel. Reid's style of play seems more like a centerfielder since he doesn't generate a lot of power, but as he grows and fills out, that may still develop. In 257 AB's with Greenville, he's hit .300/ .375/ .424 with 14 2B, 3 3B, 4 HR's and 26 BB's (with 48K's). He also has some speed with 8 SB's and 1 CS. He struggles against left-handed pitching, to the tune of only a .643 OPS.

At SoxProspects.com, his scouting report gives him excellent reviews for his defense at either corner. Reid will probably stay in Greenville throughout the season, as he is still a little young for his league. Expect Reid in Lancaster next season (and for all his offensive numbers to get a big boost along the way).

2nd and 3rd baseman, Tony Granadillo is putting up some nice numbers in Lancaster also. In 283 AB's, he has 26 2B's, 5 3B and 5 HR's for 41 RBI's. 35 BB's and 47K's for a line of .346BA/ .431OBP/ .527SLG. Tony has great plate discipline and will most likely generate most of his OPS from there, as he DOES have a noticeable difference in SLG when he goes on the road. Away from the Lancaster hitting arena, his SLG drops from .604 to .446 with only 1 HR on the road.

Although Granadillo can play two infield positions, his SoxProspects.com scouting report doesn't make any mention of his defense other than to say he is "adequate". Tony's future is probably somewhere else, as he doesn't play SS so couldn't find a spot on a possible Red Sox ML club, as his power numbers don't suggest he could pin down the top prospect at the hot corner, and he is blocked by several other players above him at 2nd.

Finally, the only pitcher I'm covering here is 6'2" 19 year old Caleb Clay. Clay is currently with the Lowell Spinners, whose season just recently got underway. In 4 starts so far, Clay has a 1-0 record in 19 innings. He has a 2.37 ERA and opponents are batting .274 off of him. He currently has a 1.35 WHIP, with 6 BB's and 20 hits (0 HR's allowed). He also has 7 K's and a nice 1/1 GO/FO ratio. He has a low 90's sinking fastball and can hit 95 on occasion. He is, according to his scouting report at SoxProspects.com, also working on developing a slider, changeup and curve. His slider has a lot of movement and looks to be his best breaking pitch at this point. Clay will probably be on the standard road up through the mL's- finishing out this season with Lowell and then playing in some Winter Leagues, and then on to Greenville next season.

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THE FARM WEEKLY MVP'S

By Trotsky May 18, 2007

Starting off with the AAA affiliate, David Murphy gets his first MVP from the Sox Weekly Harvest Report. Murphy was struggling to start the season but has turned his season around, hitting .350 over the past 10 games with 2 doubles, 2 triples and a HR, 7BB's and 7 K's with 4 RBI's in 40 plate appearances over that time. He's raised his OBP up to a very nice .417 and his SLG up to .468. Murphy's future with the club is still uncertain; his best chance with the Red Sox is as a multi-positional outfielder who can play decent defense... mostly as a late inning substitution. Most likely though, Murphy will be packaged in a trade sometime around the All Star break. If he can continue his excellent play of late, he could fetch something valuable in return.

For the AA Seadogs of Portland, I could hand out the hardware every time to Clay Buchholz who continues his outstanding pitching... but I have to give it to middle infielder, Jed Lowrie. Lowrie has been on the edge of falling off the high status he's had since his outstanding first season, with some injuries along the way that have hampered his ability. Lowrie has had an outstanding stretch of 10 games in which he has hit .364 BA with 5 doubles, a HR, 8 RBI's, 8 BB's and only 4 K's in just 33 plate appearances. In that time his OPS is 1.250. While his numbers on the season are still lacking, his miserable start has been erased and he presently sits at .227/.361/.361- .722OPS. One of the things evident here is that even despite his slow start, Lowrie was still showing the plate discipline that made Red Sox GM Theo Epstein take notice. His IsoD on the season is a very impressive .134 which indicates that he was having some bad luck with balls in play and that his batting average would eventually get hot, assuming he didn't begin to press too hard. His most recent stretch suggests that is just the case. Lowrie has climbed and descended and climbed (again) the prospect chart..... if he can show some consistency at the plate and cut back on some of his defensive miscues Lowrie could eventually find himself a role as a utility infielder for the Sox.

The top positional player in Lancaster, 1st baseman/DH/emergency Catcher, Aaron Bates gets the MVP this time around, even though he has deserved it in previous times. Bates has hit only .250 over the past 10 games in 37 plate appearances, with 2 doubles, 1 HR and 4 RBI's. He is showing nice plate discipline, getting 8 BB's to go along with 9 K's. His numbers on the season are excellent at .273/ .427/ .545--.972OPS with 9 HR's and 10 doubles. Equally impressive is that he is hitting both lefties and righties equally well. As with any Lancaster player having an outstanding offensive performance, it's advisable to consider that the California A+ League is a notorious offensively driven league. Hitter’s numbers are bound to be inflated, along with any pitcher not named Michael Bowden (recently promoted to Portland AA).

Finally in Greenville, SS Chih-Hsien Chiang gets the MVP for Kapler's Kids. In his last 10 games Chiang has been hitting the ball especially well. Enough for a .310 batting average in 42 plate appearances. While the batting average is nice, he is presently living off his BA alone, as almost an exclusive singles hitter (Mark Loretta Syndrome) with only four doubles in that time... and only one BB. We'll need to keep an eye on how Chiang develops as a hitter, as with everyone in the entire Sox organization... they need to have, or learn, plate discipline. An IsoD of only .016 just isn't cutting it. The MVP could easily have gone to Lars Anderson again, but I'm sure he'll be raking in plenty of those throughout the season.

Honorable Mention here should also go to Jonathan Papelbon’s younger brother, Josh. The side-winding Chad Bradfordesque righty has been fantastic so far on the season. In 20.2 IP Josh has only given up 2 BB's and 20 hits (1.02 WHIP) with 13 K's. He has 7 saves, 1 victory, no blown saves or losses and a 1.31 ERA. Josh will always be a marginal prospect (and talent) no matter how good his numbers are simply because of his "trick" delivery. His best case scenario is he becomes.... Chad Bradford II, bouncing around from team to team throughout his career, possibly with a brief stint on the Red Sox.

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THE FARM WEEKLY MVP'S

By Trotsky April 30, 2007

The latest installment of the Weekly Prospects Harvest is handing out the newest set of MVP's for the Sox minor league affiliates again.

In Pawtucket (AAA) the award goes Brandon Moss. Moss was in a sink-or-swim situation heading towards the end of the season with the Portland Sea Dogs (AA) last season but had an outstanding playoff performance, winning the MVP and helping Portland to the Championship. So far with the PawSox, Moss hasn't taken a step backwards and has found himself back in the Sox top ten prospects. So far on the season Brandon has a .970 OPS through 19 games with 4 HR's and 12 RBI's.

Since the last MVPs were handed out on the 14th of April, in 9 games Moss has 13 hits with 2 doubles and 3 HR's with 8 RBI's and 5 BB's, with 4 multi-hit games in that time. What's more encouraging is that he is having success against both lefties and righties and has a 1.126 OPS with runners in scoring position. Moss came into the Sox organization and impressed in 2004 with a .917 OPS in Augusta and a 1.004 OPS in Sarasota, but has struggled since moving up to AA in 2005 so his bounce back to his old numbers portends good things for the outfield prospect.

For the Sea Dogs, top pitching prospect Clay Buchholz is looking every bit as dominant as everyone has been hoping and expecting. After several snow days pushed back his first start, and he understandably looked rusty, Buchholz has picked up right where he left off when he was promoted to Wilmington (A) from last season. His start on the 19th Buchholz threw 5 innings allowed 1 earned run on 3 hits and 1 walk while striking out 8. He followed that performance up by going 5 2/3 innings not allowing a run. He again struck out 8 and gave up only 1 walk. His ERA on the season fell to a very nice 2.35, but in his two most recent starts it's a measly .9

The Sox A+ affiliate, the Lancaster Jethawks have several offensive players that qualify for the MVP this time around, and I should mention that 3b Zach Daeges, 1b Aaron Bates and IF Tony Granadillo all will probably lay claim to this award sooner or later as all are performing exceptionally well, yet I have to hand the award to the Jethawks catcher, Mark Wagner. Wagner had an exceptional year in Greenville but struggled when he was promoted to Wilmington so his offense in Lancaster will still be suspect, but Mark has a .940 OPS for the season so far while handling the young pitching staff. In the seven games that he has caught since I gave the award to his battery-mate, Michael Bowden, Wagner has 15 hits in 40 plate appearances with 5 doubles and 9 RBI's. His plate discipline is something that should be taken notice of as he has 4 walks with only 4 K's during this recent stretch. I'm hoping that as pitching promotions happen further up the minor league ladder, and as Bowden moves to Portland sometime during the summer months, that they move Wagner along with him.

For Kapler's Kids in South Carolina (Greenville Drive), the MVP goes to starting pitcher Dustin Richardson. Although on the season, Richardson has only a 1-3 record, his ERA currently sits at 1.82 in 5 games and 24 2/3 innings. During his past three starts, Richardson is 1-1 with 15 2/3 innings and 20 K's with 7 BB's and only 2 runs allowed.

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THE FARM WEEKLY MVP'S

By Trotsky April 16, 2007

The Weekly Prospects Harvest now picks up its official in-season duties. I'll be handing out mL players of the week for each team and write a brief paragraph about each player and why the deserve the WPH weekly MVP for their respective minor league Red Sox affiliate team.

Starting off in Pawtucket, the WPH-MVP goes out to the Lobsterman, Devern Hansack. The Pawtucket starting pitcher is already pushing the question that some of us were asking towards the end of Spring Training: "Should Hansack get the no. 5 spot in the rotation over Julian Tavarez?" In two starts over 10.2 innings Hansack has been one of the most dominant pitchers in all mL baseball, allowing just 6 hits, 2 runs (one earned) 3 BB, 20K's and a nice .84 ERA and a 70% strike/ball ratio. He will be allowed to begin to throw more innings in his coming starts and should be up to 100 pitches within a week. Stay tuned to see if he can continue his dominance as he goes deeper into a pitch count.

For the Sea Dogs the WPH-MVP indisputably goes out to top prospect CF Jacoby Ellsbury. Ellsbury needs to get into a more challenging league quickly. In AA, he is a man amongst children with a .393 batting average/ .433 OBP/ .607 SLG which only reveals the tip of the iceberg that is the Oregon Flash. Our own TPetey, commenting on how Ellsbury is now legendary speed, noted during the Sea Dogs recent victory over Binghamton, "Ellsbury singles, then tries to advance to 2nd on a ball in the dirt mishandled by the catcher (I think they called it a wild pitch). The ball didn't go far from the plate, and the catcher grabs it, but his throw goes into center field, Ellsbury continuing to third. The centerfielder fields it quickly and thinks he has a play at third, so he makes a throw ... that goes over everything and into the dugout." Ellsbury, when he gets on base, will give the opposing pitcher and catcher and defense fits trying to keep him from advancing himself into scoring position and he'll thereby make the players hitting behind him in the lineup more effective at the plate.

In Class-A advanced Arena League Baseball, the Sox new affiliate, the Lancaster JetHawks are being given two awards. One for outfielder Bubba Bell, a relative unknown in the Sox system turned heads by hitting 5 HR's and plating 15 runs in the JetHawks opening series. Through 10 games Bell is still playing at a high level with .417 batting average/ .491 OBP/ .813 SLG for a 1.303 OPS. Over the course of the 2006 season, Bell moved around the A-Ball level, as he did not start out well in Greenville, and was demoted to Lowell once the NY-Penn League started. However, he was clearly too advanced for Lowell, and was later promoted back to Greenville (in August) and later, to Wilmington. Although his numbers in Greenville were poor overall (.231/.326/.317), his numbers after his Lowell trip (.364/.417/.409) showed him progressing through the season. In Lowell, Bell batted .429/.495/.637 (in 23 games)… and once promoted to Wilmington, he batted .283/.368/.433 in 19 games

Sharing the award with Bell is starting pitcher Michael Bowden with a 1.80 ERA in 10 IP, allowing 9 hits, 3 BB and 1 HR to go with 10 K's. It should be noted that those numbers are off the charts when one looks at how the California League is where pitchers go to get the living snot beaten out of them. Bowden is succeeding at a young age in a league where offense rules.

In Greenville, where Kapler's Kids have been struggling to find any offense going, top prospect Lars Anderson gets the WPH-MVP for showing that his high ranking coming out of high school wasn't just hype. He's presently hitting .375/ .429/ .563 for a combined .991 OPS with a HR and 3 doubles in 32 AB's with 3 BB's and 4 RBI's.

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THE AA DOGS 2007 INFIELD

By Jay "Old Faithful" Prindall April 1, 2007

The last two seasons have been incredibly exciting ones for Sox fans following “AA” baseball in Portland. A season that ended in championship series loss in 2005, followed by a championship season in 2006! Scores of highly regarded prospects like Dustin Pedroia, Jon Lester and Jacoby Ellsbury, surprises like Kason Gabbard and Edgar Martinez, and out of no where players such as Devern Hansack have made the Seadogs games a great summer time activity. Throw in the Portland version of the Green Monster, comfortable summer evenings, a maximum ticket price of $8, frequent Theo sightings and 30 minute drive home, and I’m not sure I ever need to head down to Fenway again!!!!

Based on the projected roster this season, there is every reason to believe that the team on the field will once again be of championship caliber. The names that will draw the most attention are of course Ellsbury, Clay Bucholz and Bryce Cox. Much has already written on U.O.T.M. about these young players and deservedly so. Beyond this big three is an intriguing group of infielders. The Seadogs infield is likely to consist of four players, each of whom has brought hope of future impact at the major league level. In their first years of “AA” play, each will be looked upon to show the promise that once existed, or continue an unanticipated assent through the organization. The Seadogs infield projects to be as follows.

1b Ian Bladergroen: (2006, 98 g, 9 hr, 51 rbi, .242/.353/.408) “Blade” will not arrive until later in the spring due to an injury incurred in training camp. The player that the Sox received back from the Mets in the famed “Minky” trade will need to elevate his game this season to avoid being passed quickly by 2006 draft pick Lars Anderson on the 1b depth chart. Ian has been injury prone in his minor league career, but remains a ray of hope if he can return to his pre injury level of play. In 2004, while in the Mets system, he put up great numbers in 72 games (13 HR, 74 RBI, .342/.397/.595). These numbers certainly support the Sox Prospects description of him as “a left handed aggressive hitting first baseman with through-the-roof power potential”. Seadogs fans are looking forward to seeing him demonstrate his power by landing many of his long balls up in the right field pavilion this summer!!

2b Jeff Natale: ( 2006, 132 g, 17 hr, 87 rbi,, .304 ba, 103 bb, 74k) Selected by the Sox in the 32nd round of the 2005 draft, Natale has flown under the radar in terms of attention and hype. However, his 2006 season can not be overlooked!! Could another potential “on base machine” be on the way? I look for Jeff to hit in the 3rd spot and be the primary source of right hand power. This means many shots off and over the wall. There is some question about his defensive potential at 2b, so it will not be a surprise to see him play some 1b and OF through out the course of the summer as well.

SS Jed Lowrie: (2006, 97g, 3 hr, 50 rbi, .262/.352/.374) A very highly touted 1st round draft pick out of Sanford in 2005, Jed will be looking to put himself back in the limelight with a productive first season at AA. Described by Sox Prospects as “an excellent fielder with a strong arm and above average range” this sox fan, among many others I’m sure, is hoping that he is the David Eckstein we never got to have. A switch hitter, with “above average speed and outstanding plate discipline”, he is most likely to hit 2nd in the Seadogs lineup behind Ellsbury.

3b Andrew Pinckney: (2006, 112 g, 10 hr, 47 rbi, .255/.313/.420) Selected in the 34th round of the 2004 draft, Pinckney surprised Sox followers with a very promising 2005 season at Greenville. (128g, 21 hr, 98 rbi, .311/.363/ .535)Many of us already had him penciled in as the 3b of the future!! After a less than impressive season in 2006, Andrew will need to regain his form and create momentum for himself this summer. Did he play beyond his capabilities in 2005? Is his defense good enough? These questions need to be answered this year. Hitting behind players like Ellsbury, Lowrie, and Natale should provide Andrew with ample opportunity to see good pitches and drive in runs!!!

If all live up to their demonstrated potential, the Seadogs will have one heck of an infield and Sox fans in general reason to stop thinking that infield depth within the system is a concern!! If one of these players emerges as the “real deal”, it will show that the “player development machine” is alive and well. In any event, it will be interesting, no it will be fun!! to follow this group over the course of the 2007 season.

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THE CLASS OF 2007

By "Trotsky" March 19, 2007

The 2007 Red Sox will be graduating several members of the Red Sox minor league system this season. I'll be taking a look at those players’ histories, and speculating on what their future could hold. Last year we saw Kevin Youkilis, Jonathan Papelbon and Jon Lester all make their final move up to the Red Sox Major League team, while Youk wasn't a true rookie, and Jon Lester may start '07 in Pawtucket again, I'd have to say they were all part of the "Class of 2006" and will contribute greatly to the future of the club.

This season we have 2nd baseman Dustin Pedroia, relief pitchers Manny Delcarmen and Craig Hansen and outfielder David Murphy. While the latter 3 will probably see time in Pawtucket, I feel they will all lose their "prospect" status. Pedroia, for certain, will be the Red Sox starting 2nd baseman and will most likely never see a minor league start again- except for possible rehab assignments.

Dustin Pedroia was a 2004 2nd round pick out of Arizona State where he earned many defensive accolades and awards including NCAA Defensive Player of the Year and Pac-10 Co-Player of the Year. Pedroia came up as a shortstop but was moved over to 2nd base where it was determined his height (or lack thereof) wouldn't hinder his ability to go deep into the hole and launch strikes across the diamond. Pedroia's final minor league stats are impressive: In 3 seasons, spread across Augusta, Sarasota, Scottsdale, AZ, Portland and Pawtucket he collected a final .316/ .433/ .434

Pedroia will never be a slugger. He'll bring discipline and smart bat skills to the plate with gap power and an occasional HR. He shows the type of offensive skills that Bill Mueller gave the Red Sox at the bottom of the order- essentially a leadoff type that will see lots of pitches and get on base to set up the top of the order. He is notorious for getting off to slow starts at every level he's played at, and then eventually settling in and finding his way back to very respectable numbers. While I doubt that Pedroia will be a star, what I see is the type of consistent steady player that Sox fans love and will provide some stability at 2nd base (the most volatile of all positions on the Red Sox over the past 10 seasons) for years to come.

His cup of coffee with the Red Sox last season wasn't impressive and it has a large portion of Red Sox Nation wringing their respective hands. He put up a paltry .561 OPS in 89 AB's. A closer look at his time with the Major League club though will show that he improved steadily and had an unreasonably low BABIP. PECOTA projections have him in '07 at a .800+ OPS seeing more than 500 PA's. What we would really like to see out of Dustin, however, is a simple improvement over the .707 OPS and limited range that Mark Loretta gave the Red Sox last season. When looked at through THAT lens, our expectations should easily be met. Pedroia has far greater range than Loretta and is almost GUARANTEED to put up better OPS. He'll also show the grittiness that made Sox fans turn a blind eye to Loretta's poor play last season and endeared him to the Nation. Expect to see him firmly planted there for another 5 years at least.

While Manny Delcarmen isn't listed as a prospect any longer, he is still rookie eligible for 2007. In 6 minor league seasons Manny had a 3.60 ERA over 355 IP in 2001 and 2002 as a starter. Since 2005 after making the move to a full time bullpen arm and recovering from arm surgery, Delcarmen has put together a great minor league career.

In Portland and Pawtucket he accumulated a 2.21 ERA over 77 IP, giving up only 3 HR's over those innings, striking out 39 (4.5 K/9) and issuing 39 walks (4.5 BB/9). His strikeout to walk ratio was never impressive, but he simply refuses to give up HR's. Even in his struggles with the Red Sox last season, he continued to keep the ball inside the park, allowing just a .34 HR/9 ratio while improving his peripherals, 2.87 BB/9 and 7.59 K/9

He did though struggle with allowing singles and doubles, suggesting an enormous amount of bad luck with balls in play. Delcarmen also had the Red Sox best bullpen arm not attached to Jon Papelbon in the first half last season. Before the All Star break he had a 3.52 ERA in 23 IP. Allowed only ONE HR and was averaging almost a K per inning. In mid July though he injured his thumb and was never able to get the feel for his pitches again. During the second half the right-hander struggled towards a 6.23 ERA in 30 innings. The good news to take out of his problems though was that he continued to keep the walks down, the strikeouts high and STILL only allowed one HR the second half, again suggesting that Delcarmen was the unlucky recipient of a combination of bad defense and just bad luck.

All indications are that Delcarmen will start the season in AAA to monitor how he adjusts mentally after a bad second half in which it was visibly apparent that his confidence took a hit. They will be looking for Delcarmen to continue to show that his peripherals weren't a fluke and that he can stay healthy. I expect Delcarmen to get a call quickly- by the end of May... and to stick for good. First as a 7th inning arm and then eventually to settle into an 8th inning set-up role where we'll see him for several more seasons.

Craig Hansen will probably be the most heavily scrutinized pitcher this season. Hansen was drafted with the "most likely to contribute to the ML club IMMEDIATELY" tag on him. His stuff, while at St. Johns, was overpowering. He had a dominant fastball with movement that he could locate, and a killer slider that had batters looking silly. The Red Sox, however much they liked Hansen, were concerned about his "violent delivery" and saw a potential blown shoulder or elbow surgery in the near future. They began tinkering with his mechanics in an attempt to get a long career out of him and Hansen lost any feel for his slider and became a one-horse fastball pitcher that wasn't fooling anybody.

Hansen moved through the system quickly, dominating the minor leaguers to a final stat line (collected from 3 innings with the GCL, 20.2 in Portland- split in '05,'06- and 36 in Pawtucket) of a 1.89 ERA in 59.2 IP. Allowing 0 HR's, K'ing 33 (7.11 K/9) and giving up 24 BB (3.55 BB/9). During his '06 call up with the Red Sox though, Hansen struggled as the Major League hitters could beat his fastball, without the use of his slider to keep them off balance. His ERA jumped to 6.63 in 38 IP. He allowed 5 HR's, but kept his other peripherals consistent with his minor league numbers.

This off-season there is a lot of hope that Hansen is STILL the "closer of the future", but they will be handling him much more carefully than they did previously. Personally I'm not sure what to make of the young pitcher’s future, especially with Bryce Cox breathing down his neck for that "Closer of the Future" tag. As with Delcarmen, he'll be starting the season in Pawtucket to be monitored- to see if he regains the feel for his powerful slider and strong fastball that he earned his reputation on. I don't think he'll be pitching for statistical success as much as I think he'll just be throwing the slider... throwing the slider... and... throwing it some more. I'm predicting a call up after the All Star break and for Hansen to be handed some 8th inning responsibilities, as well as a few closing opportunities. Long term... if Bryce Cox can continue to impress in the minor league’s... AND even IF Hansen shows a solid improvement in the bullpen, I could see the Sox actively shopping him after '07 when his stock has improved and teams come looking for a closer.

And finally, Theo Epstein's first draft selection as a General Manager, David Murphy. Picked in the first round of the 2003 draft, Murphy has never lived up to expectations. In 4 minor league seasons the outfield prospect has put together an average .735 OPS, and outside of an excellent campaign in the Arizona Fall League in 2005, Murphy has never had a batting average over .280, an OBP over .355 or a SLG over .450. These are not the type of numbers one would hope to see from an expected future corner outfielder... and Murphy simply doesn't project to be a Major League caliber center fielder, where those numbers would be okay for a defensive whiz at the bottom of the order. Unfortunately, that's not what was expecting out of Murphy when he was drafted.

Interestingly enough though, Murphy had a nice competent stretch when he was called up in September last season for the Major League team- in 22 AB's Murphy put together a .755 OPS. He also has added some significant bulk this past off-season (reports are anywhere from 10- 20 lbs worth) that should help with pumping up his SLG deficiency. It seems that Murphy's most marketable skill is his ability to play all 3 outfield positions impressively. I'm not too sure though that those skills are anymore worthwhile than plenty of other career AAAA guys out around the leagues.
Murphy's best case scenario is that he starts the season in AAA and shows that his off-season workouts really were all that he needed to turn the corner to become the player he was expected to be. More likely his destination is either 5th outfielder for the Red Sox after a trade or an injury.... or even MORE likely, as 4th outfielder for a struggling young team looking to take a chance (and having the opportunity to take that chance) on Murphy. I could see him packaged with several other prospects in a trade and winding up on a 25 man roster for a team like the Marlins or Royals. Murphy seems to have the skills to suggest he COULD put it all together... but now in his 5th season in the Red Sox organization suggests that he more than likely never will.

Two weeks from now I'll be looking at the rosters of the minor league affiliates and highlighting a few players for everyone to keep their eyes out for. TPetey did a great job in shining a light on the Greenville Drive two weeks ago, I'll hope to do somewhat close to a same quality bit on Lancaster, Portland and Pawtucket.

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NAME THAT BALLPARK

By "TPetey" March 5, 2007

   Some of the most exciting baseball on the planet will be played this year in a unique downtown ballpark featuring a beautifully manicured infield, a tall, green-painted wall in left field (the wall meets the foul line only 310 ft from home, so temptingly close that it invites right-handed batters to pull), and a right field foul pole that stands only 302 ft from the plate. Fans are so close to the field that they almost feel like a part of the action. The park's cozy charm is only enhanced by the presence of an old-fashioned, hand-operated scoreboard. The lucky locals will testify that there isn't a bad seat in the house or a better place to watch baseball.

   And what a time it is to be a local! An influx of new blood has convinced the fans of the little ball park's home team that they may have what it takes to bring home a championship. They've got it all—a talented pitching staff featuring three young pitchers leading what some believe might become the best rotation in the league and a left-fielder touted as one of the best pure hitters in the circuit. This might be a big year in the history of this little ballpark ... and it's a ballpark steeped in history. Its location in a historic downtown district and its distinctive brick exterior (with bricks dating to the early part of the last century) remind us of a day long gone by.

   In fact, a famous local historical landmark is close by; the home of 'Shoeless' Joe Jackson (of Chicago Black Sox fame), a local native is right across the street. Those of you who are in the area should make an effort to be there on opening day to hear the PA announcer say, “Ladies and Gentlemen, your 2007 Greenville Drive!!”

   Wait ... did you think I was talking about Fenway?

   No, I'm talking about West End Field, or the real Fenway South, the new home of the Red Sox' low Class A (South Atlantic League) affiliate, the Greenville Drive of Greenville, South Carolina. The Red Sox began its affiliation with Greenville in 2005 in anticipation of the community building a new ballpark to host the franchise. West End Field fulfilled that commitment, and was obviously designed with the major league parent club in mind. The park opened in April 2006 to rave reviews and was selected (over the St. Louis Cardinals' expensive new ballpark!) as Ballpark of the Year for 2006 by Baseballparks.com. Let's take a look at the team that plays there.

   This week the focus will be on the Drive's starting pitching staff; next week we'll profile the lineup and the bullpen. It's difficult to accurately predict the full roster of any minor league team until the end of spring training, but here's one take on the expected rotation, courtesy of soxprospects.com (the one-stop shop for all your Red Sox prospect needs!).

Starting Rotation

Daniel Bard, RHP, 21

   Drafted 28th overall in the first round of 2006 draft out of UNC, Bard has an easy motion and a seemingly effortless delivery of a fastball reaching the high 90s (he reportedly touched 100 in last fall's instructional league). His heavy fastball overshadows his less-developed secondary pitches, including a cut fastball, a sharp curveball, and a circle change, and scouts say he'll need to further develop those secondary pitches if he's to reach his potential. Also, like most young pitchers, he'll have to improve his command of all his pitches. Bard has yet to pitch his first inning in a professional game, but he's ranked as the 4th best prospect in the organization by Baseball America.

Kris Johnson, LHP, 22

   Johnson was drafted in the supplemental round (39th overall) out of Wichita State in 2006. After his signing, he was assigned to the Lowell Spinners, where he was generally limited to two inning outings (after a long college season), and he compiled a 0-2 record with an ERA of 0.88 in 30-2/3 innings. Another reason for his being severely inning-limited in '06 is that he underwent Tommy John surgery (which usually requires up to 18 months of recovery time) in April 2005. He relies on a low-90s fastball, a changeup, and a tight curve. He's ranked as the Red Sox 9th best prospect on BA's list.

Felix Doubront, LHP, 19

   Prince Felix, a Venezuelan signed as an international free agent in 2004, began to stand out in the 2005 season in the Venezuelan Summer League, when he was singled out as the Red Sox Minor League Latin Pitcher of the year. He made the trip to the states in 2006 with the Rookie League GCL Red Sox, where he posted a 2-3 record with a 2.52 ERA in 11 starts. He uses a fastball that sits in the high 80s, an excellent curve, and a slider. His fastball can be expected to gain velocity as his youthful frame fills out.

Jose Capellan, LHP, 20

   Capellan, a Dominican signed as an international free agent in 2004, was Doubront's Rookie league teammate in 2006, where he recorded 4 wins against 1 loss and a 2.79 ERA in 11 appearances. His strengths are his excellent command (5.33 K/BB ratio) and a good changeup to complement his low 90s fastball. Having split 2006 between the starting rotation and the bullpen (and had much more success out working in relief), he'll be given every chance to stick in Greenville's rotation.

Brian Steinocher, RHP, 22

   A 21st round 2006 draftee from Stephen F. Austin University, Steinocher rounds out the Greenville rotation. His fastball sits between 88-92 and he features a good slider. He compiled an 0-2 record and a 3.64 era in six starts at Lowell in 2006.

   Three high-ceiling starters in a single rotation! Combine them with a solid bullpen and a lineup that will mash the ball regularly (as we'll see next week), and you've got yourself a very interesting team!

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DIGGING DEEPER INTO THE SYSTEM

By "Trotsky" February 18, 2007

   I've now covered the top pitching prospects, some future positional hopes in the NEAR future, and a few International Prospects. This week I'm looking at the REAL young kids. The ones that have barely swung a bat or thrown a pitch above high school. Two of which, Lars Anderson and Jason Place, are already in several "Top Ten Prospects" lists: Place is already at no. 4 on Baseball Prospectus, Anderson at no. 5 on Prospects Alert. Anderson and Place are no.'s 8, 9 respectively on Baseball Headquarters. Anderson is at no. 8 on Baseball America.

   The other two I'm looking at, starting pitcher Caleb Clay and catcher Ty Weeden, who haven't even appeared in the Top 20 but both should end up there midway through the '07 season when I expect Manny Delcarmen Craig Hansen, Dustin Pedroia, Dice-K and a few others graduate. They are currently ranked 22 and 29 on the Sox Prospects website.

   Anderson, a 19 year old 6'-4" 205 lb. left handed 1st baseman was taken in the 18th round by Theo Epstein this past draft. He fell so far down in the draft that most scouts felt he was college bound and wouldn't sign. He did prove difficult and held out until the last possible minute before signing and lost any chance to play professional ball last season because of it. But for a guy who has yet to have any stats other than his high school ones, he has been mentioned as the highest ceiling positional player in the Red Sox organization as far as pure power goes. His high school numbers are mind boggling. A .423 batting average. .575 OPS. A SLG percentage of 1013!! (1.587 OPS!) Anderson obviously needs some time in the professional leagues before we start believing we just found the next Mark Texeira though. Anderson's defense at first is considered anywhere from "average" to "good", which means as other prospects at other positions begin to show "below average" skills as they all move up the system, Anderson's competition will increase as those other players are moved over to first base. There is also some question about how well his batting average will survive as he faces greater competition. His swing is considered a little slow and long. But at only 19 years old and already 6'4" (listed at 6'5" some places) as he fills in and grows maybe another inch he'll have to work hard at staying quick. He has an athletic body build though, not a beefy slugger type, so the comparison to Texeira is good. Anderson may go through an extended Spring Training and wind up in Lowell, or go straight to Greenville.

   The systems that rank outfielder Place above Anderson are more taken by him as a complete "5-tool" player. Place may never have the power that Anderson does, but he appears to have a higher skill set all around. Place is a 6'3", 205 lb. 18 year old taken in the first round last year. He played in 33 games for the Gulf Coast Sox last year and showed some nice numbers, .292/ .386/ .442 His high school stats are also beyond impressive- sporting a nifty .544 batting average, .711 OBP and .895 SLG
Place plays the game full tilt and seems to be the type that Red Sox fans will love. He played mostly in center field, but I think he'll start to see more action in the corners, alternating with Carlos Fernandez next season in Greenville. Place has a quick and compact swing and can already hit to all fields. He has above average speed and a cannon arm but projects to lose some speed as he bulks up with more of a corner outfield build rather than the more athletic center fielder type.

   Now, dropping down in the prospects rankings we take a look at the 19 year old catcher. Weeden, a 6'2" 220 lb righty was selected in the 16th round. Another "hard to sign" player that the Sox were able to get into the folds, Weeden was projected to be a first or second round pick. He, like Anderson, also lost any chance to play in the minor leagues due to his late signing and also has little information other than his high school batting average: .393. Scouts though feel he has the highest offensive upside out of the Sox prospects catchers in George Kottaras, Jonathan Egan and Mark Wagner but he also has the lowest ranking for defense out of the 4 and he could be moved to 3rd base at times. Weeden will probably stay for extended Spring Training and move to the Lowell Spinners short season.

   The only pitcher in this report is the 19 year old Clay. A 6'2" 180 lb righty taken in the 1st round last season, Clay is expected to be starting for Greenville this season. Clay also has yet to pitch in any professional league. His high school stats are impressive however, in 86.1 IP he struck out 112 and only walked 21. Picking up a 10-1 W/L record and a 1.29 ERA and 5 saves. At only 19 years old, Clay already has a mid 90's fastball with good movement and pin point location and a decent slider, change up and curve that he obviously will be spending Spring Training and most of next season just getting a consistent feel for. He moved through high school almost exclusively on changing speeds and hitting location on his fastball and will need more than that as he faces the advanced hitters he'll see at low single A pro ball. Caleb had some injuries that kept him from pitching after the draft and his mechanics were being looked at by the Sox medical staff, but all indications are that he has a sound windup and delivery and his injuries are more conditioning related.

   Clay doesn't have the stats to impress anyone the way that the other pitchers I've covered so far do, and probably doesn't have the upside (at this point at least) either and the Sox surprised some by taking him so high which has led to speculation that someone in the scouting department saw something that he liked.

   Next week I'll be covering the Graduating Class of '07: Hansen, Delcarmen, Pedroia and Murphy.... I just can't get behind the idea of Dice-K as a "prospect" even though he's yet to throw an inning of ML baseball

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YOUNG PITCHERS TOP THE CHARTS

By "Trotsky" February 5, 2007

Theo Epstein's last two drafts have been ranked 2nd and 1st respectively by Baseball America. Moving away from "filler" after restocking the depleted farm system in his first two drafts and onto high upside kids, the Sox farm system is finally rounding into shape with some depth at Catching, Pitching, the outfield and 1st base slugging types far down in the system. The biggest improvement is over the high quality, high ceiling starting pitchers that Theo has picked up the last two drafts, highest amongst them, the "Three B's"- Clay Buchholz, Michael Bowden, Daniel Bard and also Justin Masterson. Baseball Prospectus has them ranked 1,3,5 and 10 respectively. Baseball America (with Daisuke Matsuzaka listed as the no. 1 "prospect") has Buchholz as no. 3, Bowden 4, Bard 5 and Masterson as 12.

Clay Buchholz: A 6'3" 22 year old right hander, Clay received the 2006 Red Sox minor league pitcher of the year award after posting an impressive season split across Greenville and Wilmington. Between the two levels (103 innings in Greenville and 16 in Wilmington) Clay was simply dominant. He collected an 11-4 record and a 2.62 ERA in Greenville, 1.13 ERA in Wilmington. Clay showed a great command of the strike zone, striking out 140 and walking only 33 between both places. He allowed 10 HR's in Greenville (.87 per 9 innings) and 0 HR's in Wilmington. Also impressive is that even when hitters make contact, he tends towards allowing ground balls, rather than fly balls.

Buchholz has a consistent mid 90's 4 seam fastball that he began cranking up to 97 mph late in games towards the end of the season, a dominant 2 seam fastball, a slider and a hard 12 to 6 curveball and an excellent circle change. The Sox are going to have Clay focus on throwing first pitch strikes, but other than that... this kid is the complete package. His curveball is, according to Baseball America, the best on the farm and it isn't even his best pitch.

It seems right now that Buchholz projects as anywhere between a no. 1 on a lot of organizations or a strong no. 3 on even the top teams in MLB. Clay is expected to start the season in Portland for the Seadogs but there has been some chatter that he could be in Pawtucket by July... and, as ESPN's Keith Law stated, could even have an impact on the pennant race in September. Figure him to be earmarked for about 150 innings in '07. We'll have to see how he looks through '07 before jumping on that wagon.... but Law mentioned his name right after the Yankees Phil Hughes, which should give you some idea of how highly regarded Buchholz is. I will say that he could compete for a starting job in 2008, depending on the status of Schilling and Wakefield after this season.

Partnered up with Buchholz is 20 year old righty Michael Bowden. At 6'3" also, but with some extra muscle mass and still growing... some scouts are actually higher on Bowden than Buchholz, as Michael is right behind Clay in both BP and BA's ranking but 2 years younger. Like Buchholz, Bowden spent most of his time in Greenville tossing 107.2 innings there and then moving up to Wilmington for only a 5 inning start. Outside of his one start in Wilmington (5 IP, 9 hits, 5 ER, 3K's, 1BB, 9 hits allowed) Bowden was excellent last season. He had 10.35 K/9, a 2.6 BB/9, a .75 HR/9 ratios last season and a 3.51 ERA. Considering his excellent peripherals, it's a wonder that his ERA was so high... but upon a further look, his FIP ERA (fielding independent ERA) is 3.04; nearly a run and a half less than his actual ERA. Fielding independent measures are actually a better predictor of future ERA than actual ERA, so take that for what it's worth.

Considering that he was 19 years old for almost all of his time last season, Bowden is far advanced for his age. He has, according to scouts, 4 MLB quality pitches: a mid 90's four seamer with explosive late movement, a powerful 12-6 breaking curve, a tight crisp slider and a dominant circle change-up. Bowden has an unorthodox, choppy delivery that was evaluated by Sox Dr. Andrews and allowed to not alter it, as unlike Craig Hansen, they feel his delivery doesn't put any extra wear and tear or stress on the shoulder or elbow, yet some scouts insist he will eventually end up in the bullpen.
2007 will be an interesting season for Bowden. He is expected to be broken off from the Buchholz/Bowden tandem and to start out west in Lancaster (CA) which is a heavy "hitters" park, so we may see his peripherals all jump. It will be a test to see how he adjusts and to see if the Sox earmark him for 150 innings, in which case I'll be convinced that they really don't see any issues with his unorthodox delivery. I also can see him in Portland (AA) by early June if he continues his success in Advanced Single A to start the 2007 season. Scouts considering his potential are split into 3 groups it seems. Some see him as a future bullpen arm, others as a solid, dependable middle rotation guy, but most consider his success at his age and see how far advanced he already is, competing mostly against guys 2,3 years older and feel he could have a higher ceiling than even Buchholz.

Daniel Bard: 21 year old 6'4" righty Daniel Bard caught everyone's attention during his impressive College World Series performance when he was making the opposition look like they'd never handled a bat before. Bard throws a consistent 97-100 mph 4 seam heater with excellent command and has an effortless, perfect mechanics, release. His 2 seam fastball sits at about 95 with some good late movement. Bard is mostly a fastball pitcher, his secondary pitches aren't highly regarded but he has a decent arsenal: a high 80's cut-fastball, a high 70's curveball and a circle change, but all need considerable development still.

Bard has yet to throw beyond the instructional league so any stats beyond his college years aren't available. One would think that with such a powerful pitcher he would be a strikeout machine, but in 101 IP with the Tarheels last season, he only struck out 94, which is a concern but Bard has stated that he prefers to pitch to contact, and allow hitters to make weak contact. Visions of Josh Beckett or AJ Burnett are of course, dancing in front of everyone's eyes right now... and the comparisons are valid, but most scouts see him as closer to Justin Verlander in that he consistently holds his power and velocity through an entire game, and that is why the Sox prefer him to start rather than move him into the bullpen. With the amount of younger pitchers in front of him, they will be taking their time with Josh and will be focusing on him developing his secondary pitches.

Bard looks to be on the same path as Bowden/Buchholz was last season in that he'll be earmarked to start most of the season in Greenville and then move out west to finish up in high A Lancaster. As with Bowden, I feel it will be easier to gauge what sort of Major League career to expect out of Bard. At this point, he is sitting on too many fences to come up with any sort of even half-serious projection.

Justin Masterson: My personal favorite here, rounding out the top starting pitching prospects for the Red Sox is 21 year old 6'6" tall lanky right handed sinkerballer, Justin Masterson. Justin made it to short season Lowell this past season and impressed everyone, with a 3-1 record in 31.2 innings and allowing only three earned runs during that time. He had some impressive peripherals in that time: 9.52 K/9, .58 BB/9!! and no HR's allowed.

Masterson is an extreme groundball pitcher that hitters make weak contact when they do connect, allowing an even average defense to keep runners off the bases. He has a excellent 2 seam slashing sinking fastball between 91-93 mph with impressive movement that hitters can sit on and still not make good contact with. It is complemented by a good mid 80's slider and a low 80's four seam circle changeup that takes a late dive.

During his time with Lowell last season he posted a 3:1 GB/FB ratio. His combination of pitches, ground ball tendencies and his tall lankiness probably make us all think, of course.... of Derek Lowe. Although Masterson never officially "started" last season, he was throwing 4 inning stints and the official word is that the Sox are going to be starting him in 2007. I'm expecting to see him start in Greenville and be partnered up with Bard- moving out to Lancaster for the last month of the season. Masterson should be slated to throw around 140-150 innings next season, and as with Bowden and Bard... after 2007 we should be able to have a better handle on how he projects as a ML player. A lot of scouts think "Mike Timlin", while PECOTA has him as a top notch starter, a 3.5ish ERA, comparing him to Chien-Ming Wang. While the comp makes some sense in that they are both excellent GB pitchers, Masterson strikes out far more hitters and walks far less

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WHO TO LOOK AT IN THE LOWER LEVELS

By "Trotsky" January 20, 2007

Two weeks ago I posted the first installment in the Weekly Prospects Harvest covering a potential future closer, two middle infield prospects and Varitek's potential replacement. Again, until the season begins, I'll be doing this column as a bi-weekly and this time around I'm looking some of the International Prospects in the Sox system: 19 year old starting pitcher "Prince" Felix Doubront, 20 year old Outfielder Carlos Fernandez, 18 year old 2nd baseman Chih-Hsien Chiang, and 16 year old outfielder Angel Beltre.

   First off is Prince Felix. Felix is a young Venezuelan soft-tossing lefty that compares nicely to a Ted Lilly or Barry Zito with a fastball that tops off at about 91 mph. He has a top notch diving curve and a B+ slider and a developing change-up. Felix has scouts in love with him despite his lack of power pitching. He is mostly a control pitcher: in a total of 110.7 innings over the past two mL seasons with the Venezuelan Summer League, Gulf Coast League and Lowell Felix struck out 101 and gave up only 45 walks and 7 HR's. Doubront was the organization's Latin Pitcher of the Year in his first summer of pro ball. He was 7-1 with an 0.97 ERA in 13 starts, held opposing hitters to a .152 batting average, whiffed 58 batters, and did not allow a home run in 64 2/3 innings, and won his final seven decisions. There is a lot of concern that the further up the mL food chain he advances and the more advanced batters he begins to face, that his K's will begin to fall off but his age suggests that he could add another 3,4 mph onto his fastball by his age 21 season, in which case I'll venture to say that Doubront will turn into a top prospect across the entire national minor league system. Expect Prince Felix to start the season in Greenville.

   18 year old Taiwanese 2nd Baseman Chih-Hsien Chiang had a total of 158 AB's between the GCL and Lowell in 2006 and had a combined .286/ .313/ .469. Chiang has a long powerful swing from the left side and is projected to hit for a high average and power. A quick look shows that his plate discipline is somewhat lacking with a 20/6 K/BB ratio and his defense is lacking despite showing tremendous range. There is some discussion of moving Chih-Hsien to SS in Greenville this season, and expectations that his defensive lapses will become less frequent as he matures.

   Twenty year old Outfielder lefty Carlos Fernandez from Venezuela has been overlooked mostly due to the younger high school pickups, Lars Anderson and Jason Place, but appears to be every bit their equal at this point and has been said to be one of the few "5 tools" players in the system. Fernandez came out of nowhere to win the VSL league MVP in 2005 with a .347/ .416/ .505 5HR's and 48 RBI's in 196 AB's. In 2006 with the GCL Red Sox he continued to excel and put up a .297/ .376/ .458 3HR's and 23 RBI's in 155 PA's. Although a .834 OPS isn't immediately impressive, it was good for 7th overall in the GCL, which has historically been a "pitcher's league". Fernandez has played all 3 OF positions but has been adding bulk to his frame so I could see him being slotted in to the corner OF spots. I also expect Fernandez to be in Greenville.

   Finally last season's top International Draft pick for the Red Sox, and the no. 2 overall, is highly touted 6'1" Dominican left-handed OF Angel Beltre. While it's difficult at this point to find much information on Beltre, according to his scouting report... he also is another "5-tooler" with excellent range in Centerfield and with a strong arm that already is considered a "dirt dog" type of hustler. A major league scouting director is quoted in Baseball America: "Beltre to me is a young (Barry) Bonds--all five tools. He can do it all. He's going to be terrifying when he fills into that body."

While obviously that's a ridiculous statement to make, it at least gives us a clue as to how highly he's thought of by scouts and it should be pointed out that Sox Prospect Luis Soto was once as highly regarded and has been nothing short of a disappointment since making the jump to the long season ml teams. Beltre was taking part in the Fall Instructional Leagues, but there are presently no stats available. He's expected to spend most of his time in extended Spring Training and will probably take part in the GCL this upcoming season.

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A FIRST 2007 LOOK AT THE FARM

By "Trotsky" January 9, 2007

This is the opening day piece on a series I’ll dutifully attempt to produce on a weekly basis focusing in on both a minor league positional player and pitcher of the week. I’ll also give a basic run-down on how the week went down from the rookie leagues up through Pawtucket, and cover who got a call for a cup o’ joe with the Big Boys.

To start with… at least until the season kicks off, I’ll be taking it slowly and looking at a few prospects every other week and hope to hear and gather feedback from posters. I’ll be doing most of my research from a computer, so anyone who can provide first hand scouting stuff to the discussion would be obviously, more than welcome!

So I start the initial “Weekly Prospects Harvest” kicks off by looking at 3 positional players and 1 pitcher. I selected catcher George Kottaras, middle infielders Jed Lowrie, Kris Negron and bullpen arm Bryce Cox with some strategy in mind. Kottaras has already been anointed as Varitek’s replacement, so I figured a deeper look would be worthwhile. Middle infield in the Sox parent club still has questions swirling around, especially with 2nd baseman Dustin Pedroia and the age of free agent pickup Julio Lugo, so I wanted to take a look at what the farm may yield in the short future. Craig Hansen went from being “the savior” of the bullpen after the ’05 draft (most scouts felt he was already at the same level as the A’s Huston Street) and could make an immediate impact on the Red Sox ML club. His lackluster ’06 season put a lot of doubt over his ability so we turned our heads to look for another and saw young Bryce Cox become the “future closer”.

George Kottaras: 23 year old Catcher expected to start the season in Pawtucket where he’ll gain some experience working with some pitchers that have plenty of ML experience. George has very few questions about his offensive skills, excellent patience at the plate with some 15-20 HR potential power. The knock on Kottaras is his defense is still considered sub-par and not close to MLB ready but scouts claim his catching flaws are correctable. George came late to catching so there is a strong belief that his “flaws” are more that he is still raw, rather than a developed catcher that Sox development will have to break down and rebuild.

With two seasons remaining on Varitek’s contract, the Sox front office is hoping that George will be ready to begin splitting duties full time in ’08 and then take over in ’09. Expect a September call up. Don’t be too concerned to see his offensive numbers take a dip in Pawtucket, as he’ll be more focused on his defensive game.

Jed Lowrie: Switch hitting 22 year old middle infielder. Scouting reports on Jed is that he is an excellent fielder with a strong arm and above average range, but feel he’s more naturally suited to 2nd base rather than SS.
Jed’s stock was at it’s highest after his ’05 season in the minors in which he had an impressive .877 OPS with Lowell, mostly coming off his .429 OBP. He took a dive last season after struggling through injuries the entire season. What was impressive though is that despite his drop, his OBP was a healthy .090 above his batting average, suggesting that his plate discipline was still strong. Jed took almost all of May off and when he returned couldn’t field SS well and wasn’t able to get his OPS over .700 through June and July. In August however when he claims his injuries were finally healed, he saw his SLG jump up to .529 and his OBP to .380 lending credibility to the claim that his struggles last season (both in the field and at the plate) were all tied into his injuries.

Expect to see Jed start the season in Portland as a SS and finish the year there also. If he continues to struggle defensively at Short, I’d imagine they’d give up on him there and focus on him at 2nd. I don’t see any reason why the Red Sox would fast-track him unless Pedroia doesn’t show some improvement over the course of the season.

Kris Negron: 20 year old right handed Infielder mostly expected to play short stop. Kris might just be the “it” prospect right now after a brief stop with Lowell in which he posted an impressive .393 BA/ .485OBP/ .536SLG (1.021 OPS) in just 28 AB’s. Before that though, his OPS in 142 AB’s in the Gulf Coast League was a simple .713 His defense is considered at a ML level already and he has plus speed and a maturity on the base paths that could turn him into a dangerous leadoff hitter. A recent mention of Negron having a much higher ceiling than Pedroia by a scout after his outstanding performance at the Fenway Futures Game created the buzz around him. Presently he is not even listed as a Top 40 Sox Prospect.

Expect Negron to start the year in Greenville as an exclusive SS. If he continues his excellence in the field and can show something even close to approaching his brief time in Lowell, he’ll shoot up the charts incredibly quickly.

I’ll be paying close attention (as I believe will the Sox Front Office) to the development of Negron. Without a true SS in the farm and with Lugo on the bad side of 30, the Sox are probably hoping they’ve found a SS they can finally hold onto.

Bryce Cox: 22 year old right handed relief pitcher. Expectations and hopes are high for Bryce with some expecting a cup of coffee with the Parent Club during September callups. Bryce has a top notch 97 mph fastball with explosive movement and a phenomenal high 80’s slider that one scout called it the best he’s ever seen. In Wilmington, Bryce had an excellent 24.1 innings of work in 13 games. He struck out 25, walking only nine and not allowing a HR. He had a 0.74 ERA during that time.

Because of Bryce’s “stuff” and how there’s plenty of speculation that he’s ML ready, he’ll be compared to Hansen often. Peter Gammons recently made the claim that the Sox are hoping to finish the season with one of Delcarmen, Hansen or Cox as their closer and are simply hoping to get by until then. I don’t see the Sox rushing Bryce, and if anything the cup o’ joe is the most likely… but I don’t see him being offered any innings of substance. By the time September rolls around his arm will be pretty exhausted and they would be advised against putting that tired arm into any situations that have playoff implications.

I expect to see Bryce start the season in Portland also and hopefully kept there longer in order to work towards goals rather than numbers.

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